Early voting opened nationally on Friday, and Colorado’s own ballots start hitting mailboxes October 2. With six weeks left before Election Day, here’s a clear-eyed look at what’s actually at stake for Colorado and why national Republicans see more opportunity here than they have in years.

The top of the ticket: an open governor’s race

For the first time in eight years, Jared Polis isn’t on the ballot, he’s term-limited, leaving Colorado’s top office open. Attorney General Phil Weiser secured the Democratic nomination after defeating U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet in the primary, and picked Jefferson County Commissioner Lesley Dahlkemper as his running mate.

On the Republican side, Marine Corps veteran Victor Marx emerged from a crowded primary field to beat state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer, tapping retired Marine colonel George Markert as his lieutenant governor pick. A third candidate, unaffiliated former GOP congressman Greg Lopez, also qualified for the November ballot.

Republicans haven’t won a Colorado governor’s race since 2002, and haven’t taken any statewide office since 2016. That history makes Marx an underdog on paper but an open seat, with no incumbent to defend a record, is exactly the kind of race that can scramble the usual math.

The Senate race Colorado conservatives can actually win

Sen. John Hickenlooper is seeking a second term, and he’ll face state Sen. Mark Baisley, the Republican nominee, in November. Baisley represents Colorado’s 4th Senate District and previously served in the state House. Unseating a sitting senator is always a heavy lift, but Republicans are treating this race as part of a broader push to flip the closely divided U.S. Senate and every seat matters to that math.

The race Washington is actually watching

If there’s one Colorado race with national implications, it’s the 8th Congressional District. Republican U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans grandson of Mexican immigrants and the district’s current representative is defending a seat he won by fewer than 2,500 votes in 2024. His challenger, state Rep. Manny Rutinel of Commerce City, ran well to the left of his primary rival and won the Democratic nomination decisively after outside groups tied to tech donors poured more than $5 million into his campaign.

National Republicans have already previewed their line of attack, with RNC Chairman Joe Gruters calling Rutinel’s primary win evidence of a “radical” shift in the state Democratic Party. Whoever wins this seat could help decide which party controls the U.S. House which is exactly why both parties are about to spend heavily here through Election Day.

Down-ballot: Attorney General also up for grabs

With Weiser vacating the AG’s office to run for governor, that seat is open too. Republican James Wiley will face the winner of a competitive Democratic primary in a race that hasn’t drawn as much national attention as the governor’s race or CD8, but will shape who enforces state law and who Colorado Republicans have to work with for the next four years.

The backdrop: affordability and Washington gridlock

National coverage of this election cycle has centered on a cost-of-living crisis and an ongoing war in Iran shaping voter sentiment heading into November. Early polling and ad spending suggest Colorado Republicans are betting that affordability housing costs, energy prices, taxes will resonate with voters who’ve watched Democratic control of every statewide office since 2018 without seeing costs come down.

What to watch between now and November 3

• Ballot timeline: Colorado county election offices begin mailing ballots October 2. Return them early — Colorado’s automatic recount threshold (a 0.5% margin) means close races could take days to resolve.
• Money moving into CD8: Watch for outside spending totals as national money continues flowing into the Evans-Rutinel race.
• Whether Marx can consolidate the GOP base after a bruising primary against Kirkmeyer, and whether independent candidate Greg Lopez pulls meaningful votes from either side.
• Down-ballot legislative races that will determine whether Democrats keep their supermajority in the state Senate, where they currently hold 23 of 35 seats.

Colorado Conservative Media will be tracking all of these races through Election Day. If there’s a specific race or county you want us digging into, let us know at coloradoconservativemedia@gmail.com.